International round table on the Ukrainian platform from modern China

2023-06-16

23 May 2023 In 2018, an international round table was held at the Ukrainian platform on modern China "Sino-Russian cooperation in the context of the war in Ukraine". Organizers of the event: Institute of Oriental Studies. BUT. YU. Crimean NAS of Ukraine, National Institute of Strategic Studies, Українська асоціація китаєзнавців та publishing house "Helvetica". Reported Ukrainian Association of Chinese Studies.

На заході обговорювали 4 ключові питання:

1. Does China's peace plan mark the end of its diplomatic disregard for Ukraine?
2. Has China's "borderless friendship" with Russia reached its limit in Ukraine??
3. What economic levers do the USA and Europe have in relation to the rapprochement of China and Russia?
4. What are the potential consequences of Sino-Russian cooperation for global security?

Participate in the work of the round table:

Dmitry Efremov (Ukraine), Olena Bordilovska (Ukraine), Chelsea Ngoc Minh Nguyen (Indonesia), Ґун Цзюн (China), Graham Robertson (USA), Yakub Yakubovskyi (Poland).

The event was moderated by Isabel Hilton, засновниця платформи https://chinadialogue.net/, who opened the event with a brief presentation of China's position on the war in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion.

Якуб Якубовський підкреслив важливість такої професійної дискусії, especially considering the special mission of China's special representative Li Hui to Ukraine, Poland and other European countries these days. He expressed skepticism about the Chinese "peace plan" and China's mediation in solving the Ukrainian issue due to the lack of experience of the PRC in such processes, as well as due to the asymmetry of Sino-Russian and Sino-Ukrainian relations in favor of the former. Although, as the expert notes, Sino-Russian relations have certain limits. Yakub calls Chinese peace mediation a game of China to strengthen its positions in Europe and the Global South, as a result of which Beijing will insist on an immediate negotiated end to the war.

Дмитро Єфремов зазначив, that Chinese mediation should be considered in the context of Chinese political culture, which is based on balance, peace and harmony, знаходження компромісу особливо з великими країнами. The different status of Ukraine and Russia in the architecture of international relations, from China's point of view, involves the establishment of unfair peace terms, shifted in favor of Russia.

Ґун Цзюн представив свою точку зору на китайську посередницьку місію, emphasizing, that he is not a representative of the government. The professor noted, that in conflict conditions, that dragged on, not only China is pushing for peace talks, as well as a number of neutral countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, Middle East, Latin America, which represent the majority in terms of world population. According to the expert, these countries will collectively facilitate peace mediation. Chinese plan with 12 points, or set of basic principles, still needs diplomatic efforts and consultations with the international community to achieve results.

Олена Борділовська зазначила, that the response of the so-called Global South to the Chinese peace initiative is generally favorable, which aims to reduce numerical risks, such as food and security crises. Most of the countries of the Global South want to be active players in the negotiation process regarding the establishment of peace in Ukraine, even compete for leadership in it. India occupies a special place due to its rivalry with China and friendly relations with the USA, which neither supports Ukrainian nor Chinese plans, nor does he offer his solution to the conflict. Example of Pakistan, as an all-weather partner of the PRC and a traditionally neutral country in foreign policy, also unique, because the country considers the Chinese peace initiative the only way to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.

Грем Робертсон підкреслив, that China is a global player, when Russia is only a regional player. China is not able to influence events in Europe like this, how it affects the countries of Africa and Latin America, which is a great achievement of China. War also creates challenges, and new opportunities for China, including the gains from a weakened Russia. China seeks to stabilize relations with Europe, this is the main reason for his peaceful initiative.

Челсі Нгок Мінь Нгуєн поділилась своєю експертною думкою, that the moment China announced the "peace plan", can be considered a new stage 2.0 China's global role. The specialist noted, that China's peace initiative should not be considered from the point of view of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and in terms of Chinese global ambitions. Ukraine is gradually becoming a global player, communicating on various international platforms even with the closest Russian allies, such as India and Vietnam, importantly, considering that, that the views of the countries of the Global South on the war in Ukraine differ.

Ґун Цзюн зазначив, that China does not supply weapons to Russia, therefore denies having an alliance with this country in any sense. Economic cooperation with Ukraine, and continues with Russia, as well as many other countries of the world, such as Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, etc. "Friendship without limits", which was announced by China and Russia at the Winter Olympics before the invasion, the professor considers it only a diplomatic turn, which China no longer resorted to. Supporting Russia with weapons is the red line, which China will never cross. China has primarily an economic interest in Ukraine and Europe, which will encourage him to contribute to the end of the conflict, а також бути більш активним у відповідь на тиск зі сторони європейських лідерів. The war in Ukraine affects not only the region, and to the whole world, example, causing a food crisis.

Якуб Якубовський вважає, that Sino-Russian relations are similar to an alliance, because this is confirmed by high-level meetings, as well as official rhetoric. The limits of friendship are set, including under the pressure of the West.

Дмитро Єфремов зазначив, that Russia does not perceive the Chinese "peace plan" as working in general. The expert also does not see sufficient signs of integration processes between the economies of China and Russia; their bilateral relations retain a contractual nature, which he explains by the mutual mistrust of the leaders of the two countries. That's why he doesn't see, that China will be able to reach a consensus with Russia on the Ukrainian issue. At the same time, China is not interested in the fall of the Putin regime, бо не зацікавлений в зміні зовнішньої політики рф на проєвропейську.

Челсі Нгок Мінь Нгуєн додала, that Russia still has a positive image in Asia and is trying to find supporters, for example in countries such as India and Vietnam, which have territorial disputes with China. The expert also paid attention, that official Kyiv adheres to the opinion, that China has not yet supplied weapons to Russia and sees China's position as neutral.

Грем Робертсон відзначає, that relations between Russia and China are determined by the current interests of the two countries, which together can pose a significant threat to the collective West. On the Russian side, they are driven by support needs and market access needs. Historically, the countries have had episodes of hostility towards each other, which should also be taken into account when analyzing the nature of their bilateral relations.

Ґун Цзюн не називає зростання китайсько-російського економічного співробітництва конвергенцією (rapprochement), and considers this process exclusively commercial due to the decrease in competition in the Russian market after the withdrawal of Western companies from it. The expert emphasized, that China will not abandon trade relations with any country under pressure. He considers China's peacekeeping mission to be the right initiative. The scientist emphasized, that NATO is a participant in the conflict, which carries a risk from the Chinese point of view.

Челсі Нгок Мінь Нгуєн додала, that the strengthening of Sino-Russian relations is explained by the deterioration of relations with Europe. With the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, security concerns have increased in Asia, the discussion of territorial disputes intensified.

Олена Борділовська підкреслила, that the role of the countries of the Global South in the international coordinate system is growing, especially in the matter of global security. Ukraine did not pay enough attention to relations with the countries of the Global South. But now the situation is changing for the better, because there is a need to be an active participant in international discussions, including with these countries. India sees China's mediating role as a challenge for itself and is jealous of the strengthening of the Chinese- Russian relations. India has no successful experience as a mediator and has not offered any initiatives on the Ukrainian issue. According to the professor, India sees a threat to its security due to Sino-Russian rapprochement.

Якуб Якубовський нагадав, that Ukraine's accession to NATO was not approved, therefore, it could not serve as a real justification for the Russian invasion. According to the scientist, Sino-Russian relations will not affect global architecture, але посилюватимуть тиск щодо стратегічної автономії Європи від США та витіснення США з Індо-Тихоокеанського регіону.

Дмитро Єфремов зазначив, that the threat to international security is connected with China's development of an alternative to the Western "order, rule-based". China positions its approach as “order, based on international law", which de facto provides for the possibility of their own interpretation of legal norms by China and other large countries, as a result of which their relativization occurs. China's global security initiative will also have a similar relative nature, while maintaining framework and non-specificity.